On Sea Level Variability, Climate Factors, Trends and Attribution
Keywords:
tide gages, ocean temperatures, climate factors, sea level variability, sea level rise, trends, fossil fuel burning, attribution
Abstract
Property, commerce and ecosystem assets across the planet are located at or near the coast, thus are vulnerable to sea level variability and rise. Sea level variability along the boundaries of the ocean basins are critical. We consider eleven relatively long continuous coastal water level time series from open ocean coastal stations around the globe, along with the satellite altimeter time series. The sea level time series are analyzed for internal frequency and amplitude modulated modes of variability and overall trends. Additionally, climate factors related to oceanic and atmospheric heat purveyors and reservoirs are analyzed in-kind. The results confirm that oceanic and atmospheric temperature variability and the disposition of heat accumulation, display complimentary internal modes of temporal variability to those of sea level variability on monthly to annual to inter-annual to decadal and multi-decadal time scales. For future prognostications of coastal and inland inundations of oceanic waters, and for the interactive coupling of coastal to inshore water systems and compound flooding, the coastal-downstream boundary conditions must be prognosticated based upon climate and weather relationships. This is an effort to reveal those relationships. Finally a causal relationship between sea level rises globally to fossil fuel burning, is established within.
References
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Levitus, S., Antonov, J. I., Boyer, T. P., Locarnini, R. A., Garcia, H. E., & Mishonov, A. V. (2009). Global ocean heat content 1955–2008 in light of recently revealed instrumentation problems. Geophysical Research Letters, 36(7).
Liu, H. (1998). The empirical mode decomposition and the Hilbert spectrum for nonlinear and non-stationary time series analysis. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond., 454A, 903-993.
Mantua, N. J., Hare, S. R., Zhang, Y., Wallace, J. M., & Francis, R. C. (1997). A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 78(6), 1069-1079.
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Mitchell, M., Stiles Jr, W. A., & Hartley, T. W. (2014). Sea level rise: a relentless reality hat Virginia must continue to plan carefully for. The Virginia News Letter, 90(6).
Moran, J. M. (2011). Ocean Studies: Introduction to Oceanography (3rd ed.). American Meteorological Society.
NOAA. (2005). Mean Sea Level Trend: 8452660 Newport, Rhode Island. http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=8452660%20Newport,%20RI
Overpeck, J.T., Otto-Bliesner, B.L., Miller, G.H., Muhs, D.R., Alley, R.B., & Kiehl, J.T. (2006). Paleoclimate evidence for future ice-sheet instability and rapid sea-level rise. Science, 311, 1747-1750.
Pietrafesa, L. J., Bao, S., Yan, T., Slattery, M., & Gayes, P. T. (2015). On Sea Level Variability and Trends in United States Coastal Waters and Relationships with Climate Factors. Advances in Adaptive Data Analysis, 7(01n02), 1550005.
Pietrafesa, L. J., Dickey, D. A., Gayes, P. T., Yan, T., Epps, J. M., Hagan, M., Bao, S., & Peng, M. (2013). On atmospheric-oceanic-land temperature variability and trends. International Journal of Geosciences, 4(02), 417-443.
Pietrafesa, L.J. & Dickey, D. (2000). The surge and flood due to Hurricanes Floyd and Dennis. East Carolina University Press.
Pietrafesa, L.J. & Janowitz, G. S. (1980). On the dynamics of the Gulf Stream front in the Carolina Capes. In Proceedings of the 2nd International Symposium on Stratified Flows, pp. 184-187. Trondheim, Norway, 24-27 June, 1980. Tapin Publishing Co.
Pietrafesa, L.J. (2000). On Sea Level Variability. Documented Presentation at the Plenary Session of the Board of Oceans, Atmosphere and Climate at the National Association of State Universities and Land Grant Colleges Conference, in Washington DC, Nov. 2000.
Pietrafesa, L.J., Blanton, J.O., Wang, J.D., Kourafalou, V., Lee, T.N. & Bush, K.A. (1980). The tidal regime in the South Atlantic Bight. In L.P. Atkinson, D.W. Menzel, & K. A. Bush (Eds.), Oceanography of the Southeastern U.S. Continental Shelf, Coastal and Estuarine Sciences (Vol. 2, pp. 63-76). AGU, Washington, D.C.
Pietrafesa, L.J., Janowitz, G. S. & Wittman, P. A. (1985). Physical oceanographic processes in the Carolina Capes. In L.P. Atkinson, D.W. Menzel, & K. A. Bush (Eds.), Oceanography of Southeastern U.S. Continental Shelf, Coastal and Estuarine Sciences (Vol. 2, pp. 23-32). AGU, Washington, D.C.
Pietrafesa, L.J., Janowitz, G.S., Chao, T.-Y., Weisberg, R.H., Askari, F., & Noble, E. (1986). The physical oceanography of the Pamlico Sound. UNC Sea Grant Publication UNC-WP-86-5, Raleigh, N.C.
Rahmstorf, S. (2007). A semi-empirical approach to projecting future sea-level rise. Science, 315, 368-370.
Rahmstorf, S., Cazenave, A., Church, J.A., Hansen, J.E., Keeling, R.F., Parker, D.E., & Somerville, R.C.J. (2007). Recent climate observations compared to projections. Science, 316(5825), 709.
Stern, N. (2007). The economics of climate change: The Stern review. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Titus, J.G., & Narayanan, V. (1995). The probability of sea level rise (No. EPA 230-R95-008.). Washington, D.C.: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
Titus, J.G., & Richman, C. (2001). Maps of lands vulnerable to sea level rise: modeled elevations along the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Climate Research, 18(3), 205-228.
U.S. Global Change Program National Climate Change Report 2021: https://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/graphics/sea-level-rise-and-population-impact
Union of Concerned Scientists. (2006). Climate change in the U.S. Northeast: A report of the Northeast climate impacts assessment. Cambridge, MA: UCS Publications.
Wu, Z., & Huang, N. E. (2004). A study of the characteristics of white noise using the empirical mode decomposition method. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 460(2046), 1597-1611.
Wu, Z., & Huang, N. E. (2009). Ensemble empirical mode decomposition: a noise-assisted data analysis method. Advances in Adaptive Data Analysis, 1(1), 1-41.
Wu, Z., Huang, N. E., & Chen, X. (2009). The multi-dimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition method. Advances in Adaptive Data Analysis, 1(03), 339-372.
Wu, Z., Huang, N. E., Long, S. R., & Peng, C. K. (2007). On the trend, detrending, and variability of nonlinear and nonstationary time series. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104(38), 14889-14894.
Bromirski, P. D., Cayan, D. R., Graham, N., Tyree, M., & Flick, R. E. (2012). Coastal Flooding Potential Projections: 2000-2100. California Energy Commission. CEC‐500‐2012‐011.
Cazenave, A., & Nerem, R. S. (2004). Present‐day sea level change: Observations and causes. Reviews of Geophysics, 42(3), RG3001.
Chao, S. Y. & Pietrafesa, L. J. (1980). The sub-tidal response of sea level to atmospheric forcing in the Carolina Capes. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 10(8), 1246-1255.
Chatfield, C. (1975). The Analysis of time series: Theory and Practice. John Wiley & Sons.
Church, J. A. (2001). How fast are sea levels rising? Science, 294(5543), 802-803.
Church, J.A., & White, N.J. (2006). A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L01602-L01604.
Cione, J. J., Black, P. G. & Houston, S. H. (1999). Surface observations in the hurricane environment. Mon. Weather Rev., 128, 1550–1561.
Clark, A. J. (1988). Inertial wind path and sea surface temperature patterns near the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo. Journal of Geophysical Research, 93(12), 15491-15501
Coastal Resources Management Council. (1999). RI Salt Pond Region: Special Area Management Plan. CRMC, 150 p.
Coastal Resources Management Council. (2007). The State of Rhode Island Coastal Resources Management Program: As Amended. CRMC, 222 pp.
Donnelly, J.P., Cleary, P., Newby, P., & Ettinger, R. (2004). Coupling instrumental and geologic records of sea-level change: Evidence from southern New England of an increase in the rate of sea-level rise in the late 19th century. Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L05203-L05206.
Donovan, R. (2022). Deep-ocean cooling may have offset global warming until 1990. EOS, 103(1), 17.
Douglas, B.C. (1991). Global sea level rise. Journal of Geophysical Research, 96(C4), 6981-6992.
Douglas, B.C. (1997). Global sea rise: A redetermination. Surveys in Geophysics, 18(2/3), 279-292.
Ezer, T. (2013). Sea level rise, spatially uneven and temporally unsteady: Why the U.S. East Coast, the globaltide gauge record, and the global altimeter data show different trends. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 5439–5444. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL057952
Federal Emergency Management Agency. (1991). Federal Insurance Administration: Projected Impact of Relative Sea Level Rise on the National Flood Insurance Program: FEMA.
Gabor, D. (1946). Theory of communication. Part 1: The analysis of information. Journal of the Institution of Electrical Engineers-part III: radio and communication engineering, 93(26), 429-441. https://doi.org/10.1049/ji-3-2.1946.007
Geisler, C., & Currens, B. (2017). Impediments to inland resettlement under conditions of accelerated sea level rise. Land Use Policy, 66, 322-330.
Gornitz, V., & Lebedeff, S. (1987). Global sea-level changes during the past century. In D. Nummendal, O.H. Pilkey & J.D. Howard (Eds.), Sea-level fluctuations and coastal evolution (Vol. Special Publication No. 41, pp. 3-16). Society of Economic Paleontologists and Mineralogists.
Granger, C.W.J. (1966). The typical shape of an econometric variable. Econometrica, 34, 150-161.
Gregory, J. M., Huybrechts, P., & Raper, S. C. (2004). Threatened loss of the Greenland ice-sheet. Nature, 428(6983), 616.
Houston, J.R. & Dean, R.G. (2011). Sea level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyses. Journal of Coastal Research, 27(3), 409–417.
Huang, N. E. & Wu, Z. (2008). A review on Hilbert-Huang Transform: the method and applications on geophysical studies. Rev. Geophys., 46, RG2006. https://doi.org/doi:10.1029/2007RG000228
Huang, N. E., Shen, Z., & Long, S. R. (1999). A new view of nonlinear water waves: the Hilbert spectrum. Annual Review of Fluid Mechanics, 31(1), 417-457.
Huang, N. E., Wu, M. L. C., Long, S. R., Shen, S. S., Qu, W., Gloersen, P., & Fan, K. L. (2003). A confidence limit for the empirical mode decomposition and Hilbert spectral analysis. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 459(2037), 2317-2345.
IPCC Climate Change. (2001). The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
IPCC Climate Change. (2007a). The Physical Science Basis. Summary for Policymakers. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva, Switzerland: UNEP.
IPCC Climate Change. (2007b). Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Summary For Policymakers. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva, Switzerland: UNEP.
James, G., Alchian, A. A., & James, R. C. (1976). Mathematics dictionary. Van Nostrand Reinhold Company. ISBN 10: 0442240910 ISBN 13: 9780442240912.
Levitus, S., Antonov, J. I., Boyer, T. P., Locarnini, R. A., Garcia, H. E., & Mishonov, A. V. (2009). Global ocean heat content 1955–2008 in light of recently revealed instrumentation problems. Geophysical Research Letters, 36(7).
Liu, H. (1998). The empirical mode decomposition and the Hilbert spectrum for nonlinear and non-stationary time series analysis. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond., 454A, 903-993.
Mantua, N. J., Hare, S. R., Zhang, Y., Wallace, J. M., & Francis, R. C. (1997). A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 78(6), 1069-1079.
Mcgranahan, G., Balk, D., & Anderson, B. (2007). The rising tide: Assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones. Environment and Urbanization, 19(1).
Mitchell, M., Hershner, C., Herman, J., Schatt, D. E., & Eggington, E. (2013). Recurrent flooding study for Tidewater Virginia. Virginia Senate Document No. 3.
Mitchell, M., Stiles Jr, W. A., & Hartley, T. W. (2014). Sea level rise: a relentless reality hat Virginia must continue to plan carefully for. The Virginia News Letter, 90(6).
Moran, J. M. (2011). Ocean Studies: Introduction to Oceanography (3rd ed.). American Meteorological Society.
NOAA. (2005). Mean Sea Level Trend: 8452660 Newport, Rhode Island. http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=8452660%20Newport,%20RI
Overpeck, J.T., Otto-Bliesner, B.L., Miller, G.H., Muhs, D.R., Alley, R.B., & Kiehl, J.T. (2006). Paleoclimate evidence for future ice-sheet instability and rapid sea-level rise. Science, 311, 1747-1750.
Pietrafesa, L. J., Bao, S., Yan, T., Slattery, M., & Gayes, P. T. (2015). On Sea Level Variability and Trends in United States Coastal Waters and Relationships with Climate Factors. Advances in Adaptive Data Analysis, 7(01n02), 1550005.
Pietrafesa, L. J., Dickey, D. A., Gayes, P. T., Yan, T., Epps, J. M., Hagan, M., Bao, S., & Peng, M. (2013). On atmospheric-oceanic-land temperature variability and trends. International Journal of Geosciences, 4(02), 417-443.
Pietrafesa, L.J. & Dickey, D. (2000). The surge and flood due to Hurricanes Floyd and Dennis. East Carolina University Press.
Pietrafesa, L.J. & Janowitz, G. S. (1980). On the dynamics of the Gulf Stream front in the Carolina Capes. In Proceedings of the 2nd International Symposium on Stratified Flows, pp. 184-187. Trondheim, Norway, 24-27 June, 1980. Tapin Publishing Co.
Pietrafesa, L.J. (2000). On Sea Level Variability. Documented Presentation at the Plenary Session of the Board of Oceans, Atmosphere and Climate at the National Association of State Universities and Land Grant Colleges Conference, in Washington DC, Nov. 2000.
Pietrafesa, L.J., Blanton, J.O., Wang, J.D., Kourafalou, V., Lee, T.N. & Bush, K.A. (1980). The tidal regime in the South Atlantic Bight. In L.P. Atkinson, D.W. Menzel, & K. A. Bush (Eds.), Oceanography of the Southeastern U.S. Continental Shelf, Coastal and Estuarine Sciences (Vol. 2, pp. 63-76). AGU, Washington, D.C.
Pietrafesa, L.J., Janowitz, G. S. & Wittman, P. A. (1985). Physical oceanographic processes in the Carolina Capes. In L.P. Atkinson, D.W. Menzel, & K. A. Bush (Eds.), Oceanography of Southeastern U.S. Continental Shelf, Coastal and Estuarine Sciences (Vol. 2, pp. 23-32). AGU, Washington, D.C.
Pietrafesa, L.J., Janowitz, G.S., Chao, T.-Y., Weisberg, R.H., Askari, F., & Noble, E. (1986). The physical oceanography of the Pamlico Sound. UNC Sea Grant Publication UNC-WP-86-5, Raleigh, N.C.
Rahmstorf, S. (2007). A semi-empirical approach to projecting future sea-level rise. Science, 315, 368-370.
Rahmstorf, S., Cazenave, A., Church, J.A., Hansen, J.E., Keeling, R.F., Parker, D.E., & Somerville, R.C.J. (2007). Recent climate observations compared to projections. Science, 316(5825), 709.
Stern, N. (2007). The economics of climate change: The Stern review. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Titus, J.G., & Narayanan, V. (1995). The probability of sea level rise (No. EPA 230-R95-008.). Washington, D.C.: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
Titus, J.G., & Richman, C. (2001). Maps of lands vulnerable to sea level rise: modeled elevations along the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Climate Research, 18(3), 205-228.
U.S. Global Change Program National Climate Change Report 2021: https://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/graphics/sea-level-rise-and-population-impact
Union of Concerned Scientists. (2006). Climate change in the U.S. Northeast: A report of the Northeast climate impacts assessment. Cambridge, MA: UCS Publications.
Wu, Z., & Huang, N. E. (2004). A study of the characteristics of white noise using the empirical mode decomposition method. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 460(2046), 1597-1611.
Wu, Z., & Huang, N. E. (2009). Ensemble empirical mode decomposition: a noise-assisted data analysis method. Advances in Adaptive Data Analysis, 1(1), 1-41.
Wu, Z., Huang, N. E., & Chen, X. (2009). The multi-dimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition method. Advances in Adaptive Data Analysis, 1(03), 339-372.
Wu, Z., Huang, N. E., Long, S. R., & Peng, C. K. (2007). On the trend, detrending, and variability of nonlinear and nonstationary time series. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104(38), 14889-14894.
Published
2023-11-24
How to Cite
Pietrafesa, L. J., Bao, S., Kumar, S., Gayes, P. T., Karl, T., Zhang, H., Rahman, T., & Kowal, J. (2023). On Sea Level Variability, Climate Factors, Trends and Attribution. European Journal of Science, Innovation and Technology, 3(5), 285-318. Retrieved from https://ejsit-journal.com/index.php/ejsit/article/view/306
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Copyright (c) 2023 Leonard J. Pietrafesa, Shaowu Bao, Satish Kumar, Paul T. Gayes, Thomas Karl, Hongyuan Zhang, Tasnia Rahman, Juliana Kowal
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