Openness-Growth Nexus in India during 1948-2021

Abstract

In this paper, the author examined the econometric relation between economic growth and trade openness in India in the post-independence period from 1948 to 2021. The author used semi-log linear and non-linear trend models, Bai-Perron structural breaks model (2003), Hamilton (2018) regression filter decomposition model, Johansen (1988) cointegration model and Wald test (1943) model respectively. The paper found that the openness has significant nonlinear trend in which decomposition has revealed that it contains cycles, cyclical trend and seasonal fluctuations during the period. There is one significant cointegrating equation between the openness and growth nexus where both short run and long run causalities exist but its cointegrating equation has been converging towards equilibrium significantly in a nonstationary process since its VECM is nonstationary.